ITALY: Serie A – Round 6 – September 28, 2024
Bologna’s Statistics and Performance:
Bologna’s performance in the current season has been mixed, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their 5 matches. Their forwards, like Santiago Castro (2 goals, 1.5 xG), have performed well, especially considering their xG (expected goals) ratio (1.5) matches the number of goals scored, indicating efficient finishing. Midfielder Remo Freuler has played 450 minutes but has contributed little from an attacking perspective (0 goals, 0.0 xG), with his defensive and passing abilities being more significant.
Bologna’s xG (expected goals) metric has been inconsistent across matches. For instance, they achieved 3.2 xG in their 1-1 draw with Udinese but only 0.6 xG in their 0-3 loss to Napoli. This inconsistency indicates that Bologna’s attack is unpredictable, making it difficult to forecast the number of goals in their matches.
Atalanta’s Statistics and Performance:
Atalanta has shown a contradictory performance this season. Out of 5 matches, they have 2 wins and 3 losses. Forwards like Mateo Retegui (4 goals, 2.4 npxG) have excelled, and their xG numbers are also better than their actual goal tally. Additionally, wingers like Charles De Ketelaere and Davide Zappacosta have contributed to the attack (1 goal and 1 assist each), but Atalanta’s defense has issues, conceding 11 goals in 5 matches (an average of 2.20 goals per game).
Atalanta’s xG metrics have generally been low; for instance, they achieved only 1.2 xG in their draw with Arsenal and 1.6 xG in their loss to Como. This uncertainty is especially evident in defense, where they have conceded 11 goals and their xGA (expected goals against) is also relatively high, indicating an unstable defense and inconsistent goalkeeper performances.
Expert Observations and Team Motivation:
Experts view Bologna as a mid-tier team in this season, but they defend well at home, while Atalanta is dynamic but occasionally inconsistent, with a tendency for attacking yet vulnerable in defense. Team motivation could play a crucial role, as Bologna plays at home and is eager to secure points, while Atalanta is under greater pressure after suffering several losses.
Betting Tips:
Low-Risk Tips:
- Both Teams to Score: Atalanta’s defense is vulnerable, and although Bologna’s attack is unpredictable, they are likely to create more scoring opportunities at home. At the same time, Atalanta’s attack is strong, and they are expected to score.
- Probability: 75% (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.78 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 2 Goals in the Match (Asian Total): Based on previous results and xG metrics, both teams are prone to scoring and defensive mistakes.
- Probability: 75% (Low Risk)
Odds: 1.50 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Summary:
Based on the analysis, the safest bets are that both teams will score, and more than 2.5 goals are expected in the match.