FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Matchday 6 – September 27, 2024
Based on a thorough analysis of the statistics and expert reviews of the Ligue 1 match between Auxerre and Brest, the following key factors should be highlighted:
Current Form and Performance
Auxerre has been struggling lately, as they have won only one of their last five matches and suffered three defeats, indicating they are not in their best form. Additionally, they have conceded 12 goals in 5 matches, which suggests that their defense is vulnerable, especially against strong attacking teams.
Brest, on the other hand, appears slightly more stable, with 2 wins and 3 losses in 5 matches. It is particularly noteworthy that they have achieved their wins with a relatively low xG, indicating that their defense and counter-attacks are effective, but their attacks are not consistently built on solid foundations.
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
Auxerre’s expected goals (xG) this season is 5.3, which aligns with their 5 goals scored, indicating that their offensive efficiency is reasonable. However, their defensive performance against opponents is weak, with an opponent xG of 10.3 and 12 goals conceded.
For Brest, their xG is 6.7, which is relatively higher than their actual goals scored (8 goals), suggesting that their attack sometimes squanders promising chances. At the same time, Brest’s defense also faces similar challenges, with an opponent xG of 11, and 10 goals conceded. This performance is slightly better than expected, thanks to the strong saves by goalkeeper Bizot.
Key Players and Formations
For Auxerre, key players like Rayan Raveloson and Gaëtan Perrin play significant roles in attacks and midfield organization. Perrin is particularly creative, generating many goal opportunities (SCA: 3.91/90 minutes), while Raveloson can push the team forward even from a defensive midfield position.
For Brest, Romain Del Castillo and Ludovic Ajorque are crucial. Del Castillo is especially efficient in setting up attacks (SCA: 4.71/90 minutes), while Ajorque applies high pressure on the opponent’s defense and efficiently capitalizes on the chances he gets.
Motivation and Mental State
According to expert analysis, Auxerre’s players may be frustrated after a series of losses, which could affect their performance. Brest, on the other hand, may be more enthusiastic after their recent 2-0 win against Toulouse, boosting the team’s morale.
Low-Risk Betting Tip:
- Brest to win or draw + Under 3.5 goals (Low risk) – Brest is in better form and is expected to at least secure a draw against the struggling Auxerre, especially considering Auxerre’s vulnerable defense. Both teams have moderate attacking efficiency, but their focus is more on defense, making a high number of goals unlikely.
Odds: 2.02 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary:
In the match between Auxerre and Brest, statistics favor Brest, particularly given their defensive strength and goalkeeper’s performance. For low-risk bets, predictions on fewer goals and Brest’s clean sheet seem the safest options.