EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – Round 1 – September 25, 2024
This Europa League match’s detailed statistical and expert analysis draws the following conclusions. According to the stats, Norwegian Bodø/Glimt is very strong at home, especially in European matches, where they have won 24 out of 30 games since 2020. The artificial pitch and cold climate are factors that particularly favor them, giving the home team a significant advantage. However, their recent 4-1 loss to Brann could reduce their confidence, though it was more of an away mishap.
Porto also started the season well, with a 3-0 win against Guimarães, showing they can dominate teams in the mid-table of the domestic league. However, their loss to Sporting highlighted their vulnerability against top teams, especially when playing away from home. It’s also noteworthy that Porto hasn’t kept a clean sheet in their last 15 Europa League matches, suggesting that Bodø/Glimt could very likely score against them.
Low-risk tip:
- Both teams to score: Based on the stats and previous match analysis, both teams are expected to find the back of the net. Porto’s weak defense in the Europa League and Bodø/Glimt’s goal-scoring ability at home make this likely. The fact that Porto hasn’t kept a clean sheet in their last 15 Europa League matches supports this tip. Probability: 58.75%
Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-risk tips:
- Over 3.5 yellow cards: Due to the tough Scandinavian and Portuguese defensive styles, it’s likely that both teams will receive yellow cards, especially if the match becomes tense and competitive.
Odds: 1.47 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Over 8.5 corners: Both teams’ attacking play and defensive situations suggest a high number of corners. Based on analyzed data, Bodø/Glimt’s home matches tend to feature frequent corners, and Porto is also strong on the wings.
Odds: 1.62 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Among Porto’s players, Samu Omorodion stands out with two goals in recent matches, making him a key figure in the attack. Diogo Costa, Porto’s goalkeeper, has shown the ability to make critical saves, so minimizing goals conceded will depend on him.
For Bodø/Glimt, Philip Zinckernagel’s return could be crucial, especially as he has already scored his first goal of the new season. In defense, Jostein Gundersen‘s return after illness could strengthen the team.