SPAIN: La Liga – Round 7 – September 24, 2024
Sevilla’s Situation
According to statistical data, Sevilla has had a weak start to this season, with just 1 win and 2 draws from 6 matches. Their xG (expected goals) in attack averages around 1.1 per match, indicating inefficiency in scoring goals. Defensively, the opponents’ xG is 1.86, highlighting that Sevilla allows relatively many opportunities to the opposition. The 8 goals conceded (GA) are a high number for a team with a defensive mentality. One of Sevilla’s standout players is Dodi Lukebakio, who has scored 2 goals in 6 matches and has an xG of 1.9. He is a key player to watch as he is effective in both building and finishing attacks.
Valladolid’s Situation
Valladolid has had a difficult start to the season, securing only one win and two draws in their 6 matches. Their xG averages 0.72, indicating that they struggle to create dangerous chances. This correlates with their low goal tally of 2 goals in 6 matches. However, defensively, they allow a high xG of 3.18 to their opponents, which reflects a weak defensive system. Goalkeeper Karl Jakob Hein has performed relatively well with a 62.9% save percentage, but the 13 goals conceded show that the defense often leaves him exposed.
Comparison of Goalkeepers and Defense
Both teams face defensive challenges. Sevilla’s defense allows more chances, with opposing teams generating higher expected goals against them (1.86), while Valladolid’s defense is in an even worse situation, producing an opponent xG of 3.18. The role of the goalkeepers will be crucial, as both will be under pressure to save as many shots as possible.
Injuries and Expected Starting Line-ups
Sevilla has several important players dealing with injuries, which could weaken their performance. Tanguy Nianzou, who played a key role in defense, may miss out on the starting line-up. On Valladolid’s side, Javi Sánchez and Selim Amallah are expected to play crucial roles, particularly in defense and midfield.
Low-Risk Bet Builder Tip:
- Under 3.5 Goals + Over 3.5 Yellow Cards: Both teams struggle to score goals, and based on statistical data, the match could be dominated by defense, leading to a low-scoring affair. Both teams tend to commit fouls, which could result in a high number of yellow cards.
Odds: 1.61 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary
The forecast suggests Sevilla has a better chance, but the match could be low-scoring. Both teams have weak defenses, but Sevilla has more quality attackers who can decide the game. The number of yellow cards could be a significant factor, making it a good focus for betting.