NORWAY: Eliteserien – Round 23 – September 23, 2024
1. Statistical Analysis
KFUM Oslo:
- KFUM currently sits mid-table, in 7th place with 29 points, having scored 26 goals and conceded 27. Their home record stands at 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses. Their recent form has been weaker, with only two wins in their last six matches.
- In attack, Johannes Nunez is the most dangerous player, having scored 9 goals this season. Notably, Nunez’s goal-scoring ability stands out, as he has opened the scoring four times, which could be a decisive factor.
Molde:
- Molde is in 2nd place with 40 points, trailing league leaders Bodø/Glimt by just 10 points. Their goal is to qualify for the Champions League, providing them with strong motivation. In their last six matches, they’ve secured four wins and suffered two losses, showing solid form.
- Offensively, Magnus Wolff Eikrem and Kristian Eriksen lead with 11 and 10 goals, respectively, contributing to nearly half of their team’s goals this season. Eikrem is especially dangerous in the attacking third and is the league’s top scorer.
Defensive Data:
- KFUM Oslo’s goalkeeper, Emil Ødegaard, has an average of 1.27 goals conceded per match, indicating their defense is not the strongest. Meanwhile, Molde’s defense is also inconsistent, conceding 1.09 goals per game, though they perform better away (6 wins in 11 away games).
2. Expert Analysis
Experts highlight that Molde comes into this match with strong motivation, as they are aiming for a Champions League qualification spot. KFUM Oslo’s home performance has been weak, particularly in securing victories, making Molde seem the stronger side. Additionally, it’s noteworthy that KFUM lost their last match to Brann, while Molde won 4-0 against Kristiansund.
3. Key Factors for the Match:
- Offensive Strength and Goal Scoring: Molde’s attacking force is much stronger than KFUM’s. Eikrem and Eriksen’s goal-scoring ability is impressive, while KFUM’s only truly effective forward is Nunez, who cannot compete alone against Molde’s more powerful offense.
- Defense: Both teams have shown defensive weaknesses, especially KFUM, with a higher average of goals conceded. Molde has better goalkeeper statistics, particularly Posiadala’s 72.3% save rate, indicating stability in goal.
- Motivation: Molde arrives with greater motivation, as they are closer to securing a Champions League spot, while KFUM’s aim for a Conference League spot seems distant.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Molde win with draw no bet (Asian handicap 0): Molde is in better form and has been more consistent away. Given KFUM’s weaker home performance and Molde’s Champions League aspirations, they are likely to leave the field victorious.
Odds: 1.42 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Molde win: Molde is in good form, winning four of their last six matches, and they currently sit second in the league. KFUM Oslo’s home record is relatively weak, with only two wins from 11 home matches.
Odds: 1.96 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Molde over 1.5 goals: Given Molde’s strong attacking lineup, it’s likely they will score at least two goals.