ITALY: Serie A – Round 4, September 16, 2024
Analysis of Parma:
Based on the statistics, Parma has shown mixed performances in recent matches, but there are encouraging signs. In attack, Dennis Man has been particularly noteworthy, scoring 2 goals in 3 matches, with an xG (expected goals) of 0.8, which indicates his goal-scoring potential. In addition, Man has provided 12 key passes this season, playing an important role in their offensive build-ups.
Parma’s defense is also functioning well, especially in ball distribution. Woyo Coulibaly stands out with a 96.7% short pass accuracy, making him a key figure in the team’s buildup play. The team’s defense is further reinforced by their stable 4-2-3-1 formation, which allows midfielders to support the defense, especially Simon Sohm, who often plays deep.
However, Parma’s defense is not flawless: the 7 yellow cards and 2 goals conceded in the match against Napoli highlight that the defense can be vulnerable against quick attacks and stronger teams.
Analysis of Udinese:
Udinese has delivered excellent defensive performances so far this season. Goalkeeper Maduka Okoye has been one of the top players, with a 92.9% save rate and a +2.2 PSxG (expected saves). This statistic shows that Okoye has above-average saving ability, and he is expected to be a tough goalkeeper to beat.
In attack, Udinese relies on calculated, patient play. Florian Thauvin and Brenner are the team’s leaders this season: both have one goal and one assist, but the attacking play is not particularly intense, focusing more on fewer but more efficient chances. Udinese’s issue in attack is the low xG (expected goals) value, which is only 2.7 over three matches, indicating that they struggle to create many clear chances.
Low-risk tips:
- Less than 3 goals in the match (Probability: 65%) – Both teams have a defensive mindset and have shown low goal-scoring output so far this season. Parma has scored a total of 4 goals in three matches, while Udinese has scored 7, but most of their chances were not in the league.
Odds: 1.46 – Safe Kelly: 4% - More than 4.5 cards (Probability: 60%) – Both Parma and Udinese commit many fouls, receiving a total of 8 yellow cards in their matches so far, and defensive teams often foul to maintain their positions.
Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 4%