Juventude’s Key Statistics:
- Based on the team’s defensive statistics, the xG (expected goals) conceded by opponents is around 2.20, which is relatively high, indicating that Juventude’s defense is struggling. With 35 goals conceded over the 25 matches played so far, it suggests that their defense is easily penetrable, especially during the second halves when they tend to collapse.
- Goalkeeper Gabriel has impressive saving stats, with +8.1 PSxG (prevented goals above expected), which shows he has saved the team from conceding more goals than expected. However, this also highlights the defense’s weaknesses.
- The attacking play is not efficient enough. The team’s overall xG per match is 1.87, but they have only scored 29 goals, which indicates poor finishing.
Fluminense’s Key Statistics:
- Fluminense has a particularly strong defense, having conceded only 29 goals, while their xGA (expected goals against) per match is 1.96, indicating a solid defense.
- Their attack is more balanced, with 35 goals scored, surpassing Juventude’s figures, and their xG is around 2.59, indicating better finishing.
- Players like Germán Cano are in good form and often secure the lead for the team in the first half. Their strong defense and effective attack ensure a stable performance.
Betting Tips with Risk Rating:
Low-Risk Tips:
- Fluminense Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0) – Probability: 70%
- According to statistics, Fluminense’s defense is much stronger, and Juventude’s poor finishing makes it unlikely for the home team to win. Based on motivation and form, this is a less risky bet.
- Under 2.5 Goals in the Match – Probability: 65%
- Given Juventude’s struggles to score and Fluminense’s strong defense, it’s likely that the match will have few goals.