FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Round 4, September 14, 2024
Auxerre’s Situation:
Auxerre won one of their first three matches of the season and suffered two losses. Their statistics show a tendency to make defensive mistakes. Over the three games, they have conceded 6 goals, which is relatively high. Their xGA (expected goals against) of 4.1 further confirms that their defense is not solid, with the number of goals conceded reflecting this.
In terms of xG (expected goals), they are also struggling, having generated just 3.5 xG across three matches, resulting in only three goals. Rayan Raveloson and Gaëtan Perrin appear to be the most dangerous attackers, each scoring a goal. However, forwards like Theo Bair and Ado Onaiwu have been less effective.
Monaco’s Situation:
Monaco is in better form. In the first three rounds, they secured two wins and one draw. Their xG stands at 5.2, while their xGA against opponents is 2.7, indicating that they have been effective both in attack and defense. Monaco’s attacking strength is considerable, with players like Takumi Minamino, who has already scored, and Lamine Camara, who also netted. Additionally, Denis Zakaria and Eliesse Ben Seghir contribute significantly to the team’s offensive play.
Monaco’s goalkeeper, Philipp Köhn, has been solid, conceding just one goal in three matches, with an impressive 100% save rate. This suggests that Monaco’s defense is also performing well, making it difficult for opponents to break through.
Players and Formations:
For Auxerre, Jubal and Gabriel Osho are the defensive pillars, but based on their stats, they struggle with ball retention and defense. Auxerre’s midfielders, like Raveloson and Owusu, perform well in ball recoveries, but their attack-building is weak.
For Monaco, Mohammed Salisu and Thilo Kehrer form a strong defensive line, while in midfield, Zakaria and Camara constantly pressure the opponent. In attack, Minamino and Ben Seghir play crucial roles.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Monaco draw no bet (Asian handicap 0) – (Probability 70%)
- Based on Monaco’s current form and statistical performance, along with Auxerre’s weaker start (2 losses, 1 win), it is likely that Monaco will not lose. Statistically, Monaco has dominated their matches, with higher possession and xG (expected goals) than their opponents (an average xG of 2.1), while conceding only one goal in three matches.
Odds: 1.4 – Safe Kelly: 6%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Over 3.5 yellow cards (Probability 60%)
- Both teams play quite aggressively, especially Auxerre, whose defense often leads to many fouls.
Odds: 1.73 – Safe Kelly: 4%