Corinthians – Flamengo

Brasileiro, September 1, 2024

Statistical Analysis

Player Performance

• Rodrigo Garro is one of the key players for Corinthians, with 3 goals and 3 assists, and 42 progressive passes, highlighting his importance in the team’s attacking play. His xG and xA (expected goals and assists) values also indicate his significant role in the attacks.
• Hugo has not scored as a defender but has provided 4 assists and has a high passing accuracy of 79.1%. He is a cornerstone of the defense and performs well in possession statistics.
• Cacá is another important defender in the team, having scored 3 goals this season, which is particularly high for a defender. He excels in defense with 85 clearances throughout the season.

Team Performance

• Corinthians’ performance this year is mixed. The team has lost 10 out of 24 matches, which indicates a weaker form. Their defense is also not very solid, as they have conceded 30 goals in 24 matches while scoring only 20 goals.
• Their attacking play is weak, as their xG (expected goals) value is consistently lower than the number of goals they have scored, indicating difficulties in finishing chances.
• Among the goalkeepers, Hugo Souza has the best save rate at 84.6%, but due to the defense’s weaknesses, he has a GA90 (goals allowed per game) rate of 1.00.

Human Analysis

Analysts suggest that Corinthians’ current motivation is questionable. The team has underperformed in recent matches, which has impacted the players’ morale. Despite playing at home, matches against Flamengo are always challenging.

Suggested Betting Tips

Low-Risk Tips

1. Flamengo to win, Draw No Bet (DNB), Probability: 65, 1.72x, Safe Kelly: 14%
   • Corinthians’ form is weak, while Flamengo generally performs more consistently. Since Corinthians has often lost even at home, this tip is considered low-risk.

Summary

Based on the statistical data and analysts’ observations, the outcome of the match is uncertain, but Flamengo’s better form and Corinthians’ weak attacking play suggest that betting on Flamengo to secure points is a safe option.