Italy: SERIE A – Round 3, August 30, 2024
Statistical Analysis
Defense and Goal Scoring: Inter’s defense has proven to be fairly stable so far, conceding only two goals in two matches while scoring four. Yann Sommer has a save efficiency of 81.8%, which is a good indicator, although Atalanta’s attacking power, particularly through Mateo Retegui, could pose a threat, as he has already scored three goals. In Inter’s defense, Bastoni and Acerbi play a significant role, both defending with a high success rate so far.
Attacking Potential: Inter’s attack is also strong, particularly through Marcus Thuram and Hakan Çalhanoğlu, who have both been in good form so far. Thuram has scored two goals, while Çalhanoğlu, who attacks dangerously from midfield, has an xG of 1.7. On Atalanta’s side, alongside Retegui, Mario Pašalić and Charles De Ketelaere also represent significant attacking forces, although their finishing has shown mixed results so far.
Possession and Passing Game: Inter’s possession rate is higher (68% and 61%), and their passing accuracy is also outstanding (85.7%). Atalanta has similar metrics, with 52% and 58% possession, but they are stronger in mid-range passes. This suggests that Inter could dominate the match in terms of possession.
Context Provided by Human Analysis
Human analysis highlights Inter’s greater motivation to win at home and points out that although Atalanta is capable of big surprises, they are prone to defensive errors, especially away from home. Inter’s home advantage, combined with key players like Çalhanoğlu and Thuram being in good form, further increases their chances.
Betting Tips
The following tips take into account both statistics and human analysis:
Low Risk
- Inter to win (Low Risk):Odds: 1.68 – Kelly: 4%Based on Inter’s stable home performance and Atalanta’s weaker defense, it is likely that Inter will win the match. Inter has conceded only two goals in two matches and seems more stable in all aspects. Due to the home advantage and Atalanta’s possible vulnerabilities, this is a low-risk tip. (Probability: 65%)
- Inter over 4.5 corners (Low Risk)Odds: 1.46 – Kelly: 4%Inter has generally shown greater dominance in possession and the number of their attacks (2.4 xG in their last match against Lecce), so it is likely that they will earn many corners. Based on the statistics of previous matches, Inter could reach more than 5.5 corners. (Probability: 65-70%)