Premier League, Round 2, August 25, 2024
Team Statistical Comparison:
- Bournemouth: In their previous match, they secured a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest. Their xG (expected goals) was 1.2, while their opponent’s was 1.3, indicating they created few opportunities and their defense wasn’t entirely stable. The debut of new signing Dean Huijsen and Milos Kerkez’s defensive performance were outstanding, although they contributed little in attack. Antoine Semenyo was the one who scored, but the rest of the team couldn’t provide sufficient support.
- Newcastle United: They won 1-0 against Southampton, despite Fabian Schär receiving a red card. Their xG was only 0.3, indicating they created very few chances. However, they excelled defensively, allowing 1.8 xG to the opponent but still managing to keep a clean sheet.
Injuries and Suspensions:
- Bournemouth: Several key players, such as Enes Ünal and David Brooks, are missing, which could weaken their attacking potential.
- Newcastle: The suspension of Fabian Schär and the absence of Sandro Tonali could weaken their defense, which is particularly crucial for an away match.
Motivation and Tactical Situation:
- Bournemouth: Playing at home, their early season form will be important in securing a mid-table position. Given their poor form in August (winless in 8 matches in this month), they might be extra motivated.
- Newcastle: Their goal is to break the negative streak against Bournemouth and start the season with two consecutive victories.
Betting Recommendations:
- Low Risk: Bet Builder: Under 3.5 Goals + Over 2.5 Yellow Cards
- Probability: 62.5%
- Odds: 1.83 – Kelly: 8%
- Under 3.5 Goals in the Match:
Recent matches for both teams have seen low goal counts. Bournemouth’s lack of attacking potential and Newcastle’s solid defense point towards this outcome. - Number of Cards:
Both teams have aggressive players, as seen in the first round. Several Bournemouth players received yellow cards, and Schär was sent off for Newcastle. Given the high stakes and Bournemouth playing at home, it’s likely there will be several tough challenges leading to yellow cards.