Braga – Servette

Europa League Qualifier, August 8, 2024

Match Analysis

Statistics and Trends

Based on statistical data, Braga has significant chances in the match. The latest data indicates that the probability of Braga winning is 63.3%, while the probability of Servette winning is only 16.68%. The chance of a draw is 20.02%.

Braga’s form and statistics:

• All competitions: WLWDWW
• Europa League: WW
• Last match: M. Petah Tikva 0-5 Braga

Servette’s form and statistics:

• All competitions: LWWWWL
• Last match: Lugano 3-1 Servette

Goal probabilities:

• Most likely Braga win result: 2-0 (10%)
• Next likely results: 2-1 (9.92%), 1-0 (9.42%)
• Most likely draw result: 1-1 (9.34%)
• Most likely Servette win result: 1-2 (4.63%)

Number of goals:

• Over 2.5 goals: 60.21%
• Under 2.5 goals: 39.79%
• Over 3.5 goals: 37.85%
• Under 3.5 goals: 62.14%

Teams’ goal-scoring probabilities:

• Braga over 0.5 goals: 88.03%
• Braga over 1.5 goals: 62.63%
• Servette over 0.5 goals: 62.91%
• Servette over 1.5 goals: 26.12%

Expert Analysis and Insights

According to expert analysis, Braga is expected to dominate the match at home, especially considering their 7-0 aggregate win in the previous round against Maccabi Petah Tikva. Braga’s coach, Daniel Sousa, has strengthened the team with new tactics and players, notably Amine El Ouazzani, who scored in the previous match.

Braga strengths:

• Strong attacking line capable of scoring significantly (e.g., 5-0 against M. Petah Tikva).
• Well-organized defense, especially at home.

Servette weaknesses:

• Weak away form, with only three wins in their last 10 away matches.
• Defensive issues, having kept a clean sheet only twice in their last 10 away matches.

Motivation and tactical factors:

• Braga is motivated to avoid last season’s failure when they were eliminated by Qarabag FK.
• Servette faces a significant challenge, particularly due to their weak away performance.

Betting Tips and Risk Assessment

Low-risk tips:

1. Braga win (63.3% probability, 1.50x, quarter-Kelly: negative) – Low risk
   • Based on statistical data and team form, Braga is the clear favorite for the match.

Medium-risk tips:

1. Over 2.5 goals (60.21% probability, 1.60x, quarter-Kelly: negative) – Medium risk
   • Both teams have an attacking approach, and multiple goals are expected in the match.
2. Braga win and both teams to score (2.85x, probability not exact, but BTTS 55.38%, quarter-Kelly: 7.8%) – Medium risk
   • While Braga is the favorite, Servette might also score, given their strong attacking line.

Summary:

Based on statistical data and expert analysis, the safest bet is Braga’s win. For medium risk, more than 2.5 goals are expected. Given Servette’s weak away form and Braga’s strength at home, these bets are considered low-risk for bettors.