Red Bull Salzburg – FC Twente

Champions League Qualifier, August 6, 2024, 20:45 local time

Statistical Data

Form and Performance:

• Red Bull Salzburg:
  • Last 6 matches: LWWWWW
  • Most recent match: Grazer 2-3 Salzburg
  • Goals scored: 3
• FC Twente:
  • Last 6 matches: LWLWWD
  • Most recent match: Schalke 0-0 FC Twente
  • Goals scored: 0

Probabilities:

• Red Bull Salzburg win: 47.77%
• FC Twente win: 30.07%
• Draw: 22.2%

Most likely results:

• Salzburg win: 2-1 (9.09%), 1-0 (6.42%), 2-0 (6.13%)
• FC Twente win: 1-2 (7.06%)
• Draw: 1-1 (9.52%)

Goals:

• Both teams to score: 65.87%
• Over 2.5 goals: 65.91%
• Over 3.5 goals: 44.03%

Human Analysis

Red Bull Salzburg:

• They didn’t win the championship last season, resulting in a coaching change: Pep Lijnders arrived.
• Good preparation: undefeated preseason, 6-0 victory in the Cup, and a win against Grazer in the league opener.
• The goal: to reach the Champions League group stage, which they failed to do last season.

FC Twente:

• They haven’t played in the Champions League for fourteen years.
• Showing stable form: four draws and one win in the preseason.
• Finished third in the Dutch league last season.
• Key departures: Robin Propper (team captain and defensive mainstay).

Players and Expected Lineups

Red Bull Salzburg:

• Karim Konate, who scored 20 goals last season, is expected to start.
• Oscar Gloukh, who recently returned to training, will likely miss the match.
• Injuries: Fernando (thigh), Takumu Kawamura (knee), Alexander Schlager (knee).

FC Twente:

• Important new signing: Sam Lammers.
• Main goal scorer: Sem Steijn.
• Doubtful player: Michal Sadilek (shin injury).

Expected Lineups:

• Red Bull Salzburg: Blaswich; Dedic, Baidoo, Blank, Terzic; Diambou; Capaldo, Kjaergaard; Daghim, Konate, Nene
• FC Twente: Unnerstall; Reeger, Hilgers, Bruns, Kuipers; Kjolo, Eiting; Rots, Steijn, Lammers; Van Wolfswinkel

Interesting Notes

• Salzburg’s new coach, Pep Lijnders, started the season well.
• FC Twente could return to the Champions League after a long time.
• Both teams are motivated to reach the Champions League group stage.

Betting Tips

Low-Risk Tip

1. Both teams to score – 65.87% probability, odds: 1.71x, quarter-Kelly fraction: 4.45% of the bankroll (Low risk)
   • Both teams have the attacking strength to score.

Medium-Risk Tips

1. Over 2.5 goals in the match – 65.91% probability, odds: 1.70x, quarter-Kelly fraction: 4.3% of the bankroll (Medium risk)
   • Based on Salzburg’s attacking power and Twente’s defensive weaknesses, many goals are expected.
2. Red Bull Salzburg win – 47.77% probability, odds: 1.66x (The quarter-Kelly fraction for this tip is negative) (Medium risk)
   • Salzburg is strong at home and in good form.
3. Karim Konate to score – (Medium risk)
   • Konate is in great form and is a key player for Salzburg.

Summary

Based on the analysis, Red Bull Salzburg is expected to dominate the match, as they play at home and are in good form. FC Twente’s defense has weakened due to the departure of key players, and although their attack is strong, they may be vulnerable in defense. The low-risk tip of both teams to score is a safe choice, while the medium-risk tips, such as over 2.5 goals and a Salzburg win, are also likely scenarios.