Atlético Goianiense – Bahia

Brasileiro match

Based on the detailed statistical and expert analysis of the match between Atlético Goianiense and Bahia, we can draw several important conclusions. Below, I will review the statistical data, player performance, and the safest betting tips based on expert analysis.

Statistical Data Analysis

Atlético Goianiense

1. Scoring and Attacks:
   • The team scored 15 goals in 18 matches, averaging 0.83 goals per match.
   • The top scorer is Luiz Fernando with 5 goals.
   • The team’s xG (expected goals) is 20, indicating they are underperforming based on their chances.
2. Defense:
   • Atlético Go conceded 28 goals, averaging 1.56 goals per match.
   • Goalkeeper Ronaldo conceded 27 goals in 17 matches with a 66.7% save rate.
3. Passing and Possession:
   • The team completed 7,563 passes with a 76.6% accuracy rate.
   • Guilherme Romão is the most active passer with 806 passes and a 70.8% accuracy rate.

Bahia

1. Scoring and Attacks:
   • Bahia scored 27 goals in 18 matches, averaging 1.5 goals per match.
   • Everaldo Stum is the top scorer with 6 goals.
   • The team’s xG is 25.6, close to the actual goal count, indicating good performance based on chances.
2. Defense:
   • Bahia conceded 22 goals, averaging 1.22 goals per match.
   • Goalkeeper Marcos Felipe conceded 22 goals in 18 matches with over 70% save rate.
3. Passing and Possession:
   • Bahia completed 809 passes with an 82% accuracy rate.
   • Jean Lucas is the most active passer with 1,483 passes and an 86% accuracy rate.

Expert Analysis

Experts highlighted that Atlético Goianiense tends to make defensive errors, especially in the final stages of matches. Bahia, on the other hand, has strong offensive play and a stable defense. The motivation of Atlético Goianiense players is questionable as they have lost several matches in a row, while Bahia players are more motivated to move into the upper table.

Player Comparison and Absentees

1. Absentees and Possible Starters:
   • One of Atlético Goianiense’s key players, Luiz Fernando, is likely to play, which is a positive for the team.
   • For Bahia, Everaldo Stum and Jean Lucas are also available, strengthening the attacking section.
2. Statistical Comparison:
   • Luiz Fernando (Atlético Go) has 5 goals and a 2.8 xG, while Everaldo Stum (Bahia) has 6 goals and a 4.2 xG.
   • Ronaldo (Atlético Go) has a 66.7% save rate compared to Marcos Felipe (Bahia) with 70%.

Low-Risk Betting Tips

1. Number of Goals – Under 3.5 (low risk 1.27x), Under 2.5 (medium risk 1.74x)
   • Based on the defensive statistics and attacking efficiency of both teams, it is likely that the match will have few goals.
2. Bahia win or draw (X2) (low risk 1.43x)
   • Bahia is in better form and has stronger offensive and defensive statistics than Atlético Go.

Closing Note

The match between Atlético Goianiense and Bahia promises an interesting tactical battle, with Bahia being the favorite to win based on their current form and statistical indicators. The low-risk betting tips include under 2.5 goals and Bahia win or draw. Considering player statistics and absentees, Bahia has the advantage in this match.