Canada – Uruguay

Copa America Third Place Match

The 2024 Copa America third-place match between Canada and Uruguay promises to be an exciting encounter filled with interesting statistical data and expert analyses. Below, I provide a detailed analysis of the teams’ statistics and expert opinions, paying special attention to player performances, team motivations, potential injuries, and expected starting lineups.

Canada’s Statistics and Performance

Basic Statistics

• Canada has had a mixed performance in the tournament with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses.
• Jonathan David is the team’s only goal scorer, with 1 goal in 5 matches.
• Goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau has a save efficiency of 77.3%, which is outstanding in the tournament.

Advanced Statistics

• Canada’s xG (expected goals) is 6.5, indicating they should have scored more than their current 2 goals.
• The team’s xGA (expected goals against) is 7.2, highlighting the defense’s vulnerability.
• Alphonso Davies and Stephen Eustáquio excel in passing accuracy and ball handling, with Davies particularly strong in progressive runs (prgR).

Uruguay’s Statistics and Performance

Basic Statistics

• Uruguay has a strong record in the tournament with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss.
• Darwin Núñez is the team’s top scorer with 2 goals.
• Goalkeeper Sergio Rochet has an impressive save efficiency of 84.6%.

Advanced Statistics

• Uruguay’s xG is 7.6, confirming their attacking efficiency, especially from Núñez and Federico Valverde.
• Their xGA is 2.8, indicating strong defense led by Rochet.
• Federico Valverde and Manuel Ugarte excel in passing and progressive runs, with Valverde initiating numerous attacks.

Expert Analysis and Comments

Motivation and Injuries

• Experts highlight that Uruguay may have higher motivation due to their stronger form and greater experience in handling such situations.
• Canada‘s motivation is questionable due to multiple injuries and weaker performance.
• Injuries: Several key players may be absent for Canada, adding to their challenges.

Tactical and Player Comparisons

Canada

• Jonathan David can be a key player but may not be enough alone for success.
• The defense’s vulnerability and low xG (6.5) point to their weak attacking efficiency.

Uruguay

• Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde have exceptional player efficiency.
• Their strong defense and low xGA (2.8) make it difficult to score against them.

Betting Tips for Bettors

Low-Risk Tips

1. Uruguay to win – Uruguay is in stronger form and statistically dominant. (Low risk 1.58x)
2. Canada to score less than 1.5 goals – Canada has low attacking efficiency and scores few goals. (Low risk 1.20x)
3. Darwin Núñez to score – Núñez is the team’s top scorer and in good form. (Low risk, single bet suggestion 1.94x)

Medium-Risk Tips

4. More than 1.5 goals in the match (Low risk 1.24x), more than 2.5 goals in the match (Medium risk 1.74x) – Both teams have strong goal scorers, so more goals are expected.
5. Over 2.5 yellow cards (Low risk 1.21x), over 3.5 yellow cards (Medium risk 1.46x) – A physical match is expected, which could lead to many fouls.

Summary

Based on the statistical data and expert analyses, Uruguay seems to be the safer bet, especially for a win. Canada’s weak attacking efficiency and defense suggest they may struggle to dominate. Key players like Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde could significantly influence the match’s outcome. Considering low and medium-risk tips is advisable to minimize potential losses.