Atl. Goianiense – Ath. Paranaense

Brasileiro

Match Context and Team Motivation

Atlético Goianiense is currently 19th in Série A, which means they are seriously threatened with relegation. The team’s main goal for the rest of the season is to fight for survival, and every point is crucial for them. Athletico Paranaense is in the middle of the table, and although their chances of winning the title are slim, a good performance could still see them fight for international cup competition. The teams’ motivations are different, but winning is important for both.

Statistical Analysis

Atlético Goianiense

1. Goals and Offensive Statistics:
   • They have scored 12 goals in 14 matches (0.86 goals/match) while conceding 19 goals (1.36 goals/match).
   • Luiz Fernando is their top scorer with 4 goals, but other players contribute little to goal-scoring.
   • Their xG (expected goals) is 17.3, indicating they should score more based on their chances.
2. Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:
   • Goalkeeper Ronaldo has a statistic of 1.39 goals conceded per match, indicating defensive weaknesses.
   • The team has collected many yellow cards (42), indicating indiscipline.
3. Passing and Possession:
   • The team has a passing accuracy of 77.4%, which is average in the league.
   • With 33% possession, they have one of the lowest possession rates in the league, making it difficult to build attacks.

Athletico Paranaense

1. Goals and Offensive Statistics:
   • They have scored 16 goals in 14 matches (1.14 goals/match) and conceded 12 goals (0.86 goals/match).
   • Gonzalo Mastriani is their top scorer with 4 goals, and several players contribute to scoring (e.g., Pablo and Fernandinho).
   • Their xG is 17.4, matching their actual goals scored, indicating efficiency.
2. Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:
   • Goalkeeper Bento has performed excellently with an 84% save rate and 0.57 goals conceded per match.
   • The defense is well-organized, receiving few yellow cards (35).
3. Passing and Possession:
   • The team has a passing accuracy of 80%, better than Atlético Goianiense.
   • They play with an average of 50% possession, indicating balanced play.

Safe Betting Tips

1. Number of Yellow Cards (Over 4.5) – Low Risk
   • Both teams tend to collect yellow cards, especially Atlético Goianiense. They have regularly accumulated more than 5 yellow cards in their last 5 matches.
2. Athletico Paranaense Win or Draw (Double Chance) – Low Risk
   • Athletico Paranaense is in better form and has a stronger team. The bet is low risk as a draw also wins.
3. Under 3.5 Goals in the Match (Low Risk), Under 2.5 Goals in the Match (Medium Risk)
   • Atlético Goianiense has a weak attack, while Athletico Paranaense has a strong defense. Statistics suggest few goals in the match.
4. Gonzalo Mastriani to Score: (Medium Risk)
   • The player is in good form and is likely to score again.

Players and Expected Lineups

Atlético Goianiense:

• Due to injuries and suspensions, some key players like Shaylon and Ronaldo may play crucial roles.
• Expected lineup: Ronaldo – Guilherme Romão, Adriano Martins, Alix Vinicius, Maguinho – Gabriel Baralhas, Rhaldney – Shaylon, Luiz Fernando, Alejo Cruz – Emiliano Rodríguez

Athletico Paranaense:

• Several players are in good form, like Gonzalo Mastriani and Fernandinho.
• Expected lineup: Bento – Kaique Rocha, Thiago Heleno, Leonardo Godoy – Erick, Fernandinho, Christian, Lucas Esquivel – Tomás Cuello, Gonzalo Mastriani, Agustín Canobbio

Conclusion

Based on statistical data and human analysis, the safest bets are the number of yellow cards, under 3.5 goals, and Athletico Paranaense win or draw. These analyses consider both teams’ form, statistics, and motivation, providing the best chances for successful bets.