European Championship Round of 16, June 29, 2024
Before the European Championship round of 16 match between Switzerland and Italy, I thoroughly analyzed statistical data and human expert opinions. The following detailed analysis and conclusions may assist with betting and understanding the match.
Switzerland Statistical Analysis
Overall Performance:
- Switzerland scored 5 goals and conceded 3 in 3 matches. Their xG (expected goals) was 4.0, while the opponent’s xG was 3.6.
- Switzerland’s goal performance: Shaqiri, Embolo, and Duah each scored 1 goal.
Attack Statistics:
- Dan Ndoye and Ruben Vargas are among the most active attackers, with Ndoye producing 9 shots averaging 3.46 shots/90 minutes.
- Xherdan Shaqiri stood out with 1.53 goals/90 minutes in his only match.
Defense Statistics:
- Manuel Akanji and Fabian Schär play significant roles in defense, making 4 and 3 tackles respectively.
Goalkeeper:
- Yann Sommer worked with a 62.5% save rate, conceding 3 goals while facing 8 shots on target.
Italy Statistical Analysis
Overall Performance:
- Italy scored 3 goals and conceded 3 in 3 matches. Their xG was 2.6, while the opponent’s xG was 3.5.
- Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolò Barella were responsible for the goals, each contributing one.
Attack Statistics:
- Lorenzo Pellegrini produced the most shots, averaging 2.67 shots/90 minutes, while Federico Chiesa averaged 2.08 shots/90 minutes.
Defense Statistics:
- Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Alessandro Bastoni have significant defensive statistics, with Di Lorenzo making 10 tackles and 15 clearances.
Goalkeeper:
- Gianluigi Donnarumma worked with a 76.9% save rate, conceding 3 goals while facing 13 shots on target.
Risk Tip Analysis
Low-Risk Tips:
- Few goals in the match (less than 2.5 goals low risk, less than 3.5 goals minimal risk) – Based on both teams’ goal averages and xG values, not many goals are expected. Risk: Low
- Few yellow cards (less than 5.5 yellow cards) – Both teams have been relatively disciplined in the tournament, with Switzerland receiving 7 yellow cards and Italy only 6. Risk: Low
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Italy over 4.5 corners – Italy generally dominates matches and wins many corners; based on statistics, they are expected to have over 4.5 corners. Risk: Medium
Further Interesting Findings and Analyses
Motivation and Human Analysis:
- Experts highlight that both teams are motivated to advance, but Italy’s experience and stable defense could be crucial.
- Switzerland tends to try their attacks, especially with quick counterattacks, as supported by Ndoye and Vargas’s statistics.
Possible Formations:
- Switzerland might play in a 3-4-1-2 formation, with Xhaka directing the midfield and Embolo and Duah being the primary attackers.
- Italy could field a 4-3-3 formation, with Barella and Pellegrini playing significant roles in the midfield and Chiesa in the attack.
Summary
Based on the combination of statistical data and expert opinions, the following three tips appear to be the safest:
- Few goals in the match (Less than 2.5) – Low Risk
- Few yellow cards (less than 5.5) – Low Risk
- Italy over 4.5 corners – Medium Risk
These tips are supported by statistical data and human analyses, considering the performance and playing styles of both teams.