Copa América Group Stage
Detailed Analysis
Statistical Data and Expert Analyses
Considering the data and expert analyses for the Copa America match between Brazil and Paraguay, the following analysis has been prepared.
Analysis of Brazil’s Statistical Data
Brazil dominated their first match against Costa Rica but failed to score despite having a significant advantage in most statistical metrics:
- Possession: 74%
- Expected Goals (xG): 1.66 (compared to Costa Rica’s 0.03)
- Actions in the Rival Area: 49 (compared to Costa Rica’s 2)
The Brazilian team has several attacking options, including Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, and Rodrygo, who can consistently put pressure on the opponent’s defense.
Analysis of Paraguay’s Statistical Data
Paraguay played against Colombia in their first match, which was a close contest but ended in a 2-1 defeat. It is important to note that Paraguay usually struggles to come back in matches after falling behind:
- Comebacks from Behind: 18 consecutive losses after conceding the first goal
- Copa America Matches with Halftime Deficits: 3 consecutive losses
Current Form and Motivation of the Teams
Brazil:
- Copa America Form: D (0-0 against Costa Rica)
- Overall Form: LWDWDD
- Attacking Potential: Brazil has a very strong attacking unit, but they were unable to convert this into goals in their first match.
Paraguay:
- Copa America Form: L (2-1 against Colombia)
- Overall Form: DLDLWL
- Defensive Ability: Paraguay defended well in the first half-hour against Colombia but collapsed after conceding.
Expected Lineups and Key Players
Expected Paraguay Starting XI:
- Goalkeeper: Morinigo
- Defenders: Velazquez, Balbuena, Alderete, Espinoza
- Midfielders: Rojas, Cubas, Caballero
- Forwards: Romero, Arce, Enciso
Expected Brazil Starting XI:
- Goalkeeper: Alisson
- Defenders: Danilo, Militao, Marquinhos, Arana
- Midfielders: Guimaraes, Luiz
- Forwards: Raphinha, Paqueta, Rodrygo, Junior
Recommended Betting Tips and Risks
Low-Risk Tips:
- Brazil to Score Over 1.5 Goals – Low Risk
- Analysis: Brazil’s attackers are very strong, and although they failed to score in their first match, statistical indicators suggest they will likely improve in this second match.
- Brazil to Have Over 4.5 Corners – Low Risk, Over 5.5 Corners – Medium Risk
- Analysis: Brazil made 49 attacks in the rival area in the first match, suggesting they are likely to win several corners against Paraguay.
- Brazil to Win and Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – Medium Risk
- Analysis: Brazil is likely to win, and if their attackers are effective, over 2.5 goals in the match is also probable.
- Paraguay to Have Under 3.5 Corners – Medium Risk (Under 4.5 Corners – Low Risk)
- Analysis: Paraguay generally leads fewer attacks, which can lead to fewer corners.
- Number of Yellow Cards Over 3.5 – Medium Risk
- Analysis: Based on the aggressive defense of both teams and the experiences from the first matches, several yellow cards are expected.
Summary
Based on statistical data and expert analyses, we can draw the following conclusions:
- Brazil is highly likely to dominate the match and score multiple goals.
- Paraguay’s defensive style and difficulties in scoring make a large victory for them less likely.
- The match is likely to feature several corners and yellow cards, especially due to Brazil’s dominance.
Therefore, the safest betting tips are on Brazil’s goal scoring, Paraguay’s limited scoring opportunities, and the number of corners.