European Championship, June 25, 2024
Analysis Based on Statistics and Expert Opinions
Based on the available statistics and expert analysis, the match between Denmark and Serbia shows interesting trends. Both teams have produced mixed results in the tournament so far, making it challenging to predict the exact outcome. Below, I will analyze the performance of both teams in detail, the statistical data, and expert findings to suggest three low and medium-risk betting tips.
Statistical Analysis of Denmark
Attacking Statistics:
- Denmark scored two goals in the group stage, both by midfielders: Christian Eriksen and Morten Hjulmand.
- Their xG (expected goals) is 2.5, indicating they should have scored more goals in the matches played so far.
- Forwards Rasmus Højlund and Jonas Wind have yet to score, raising questions about the attackers’ effectiveness.
Defensive Statistics:
- Denmark conceded two goals, slightly higher than their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.9.
- To strengthen the defense, Joachim Andersen and Andreas Christensen delivered solid performances, both with high pass accuracy rates (Christensen 97.9%, Andersen 84.7%).
Key Moments and Passing:
- Eriksen excels in passes and key passes (82 successful passes out of 102 attempts, with 80.4% accuracy).
- The Danish team has an average pass accuracy of 85.8%, demonstrating their strong ball possession abilities.
Statistical Analysis of Serbia
Attacking Statistics:
- Serbia scored only one goal, netted by Luka Jović.
- Their xG (expected goals) is 1.8, also lower than expected.
- Forwards Aleksandar Mitrović and Dušan Vlahović have not yet scored, raising similar concerns as the Danish team.
Defensive Statistics:
- Serbia conceded two goals, matching their xGA (expected goals against).
- Nikola Milenković and Strahinja Pavlović have outstanding defensive statistics, particularly Pavlović’s 63.6% successful tackle rate.
Key Moments and Passing:
- Serbia’s pass accuracy is 84.4%, also high but slightly lower than Denmark’s.
- Milenković (92.9% pass accuracy) and Veljković (93.1%) form the core of the defense, ensuring ball distribution.
Expert Analysis
Experts highlight that Denmark emphasizes ball possession and midfield play, led by Eriksen. In contrast, Serbia relies more on quick counter-attacks and physical play. Both teams are highly motivated, as their chances of advancing are at stake.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips:
- Serbia over 2.5 yellow cards: Due to Serbia’s aggressive playing style, they may receive more yellow cards, especially in defense. Based on previous matches, the team has already received several yellow cards. (Low risk)
- Over 3.5 yellow cards in the match: Given the stakes and tension of the match, this tip is also justified.
- Under 3.5 goals in the match: Both teams have solid defenses, and their previous matches had low goal counts.
- Over 7.5 corners in the match: Both teams tend to win many corners, especially Denmark, which can pose a threat with Eriksen’s corners. (Medium risk)
These tips take into account team statistics, player performances, and expert analyses.