Croatia – Italy

European Championship, June 24, 2024

Based on a thorough analysis of the recent performances of the Croatian and Italian national teams, several conclusions can be drawn regarding the outcome of their upcoming European Championship match.

Statistical Analysis of Croatia

Team Performance:

• Defense and Goalkeeper Performance: Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livaković conceded 5 goals in 2 matches, averaging 2.5 goals per match. The defense line generally appears unstable, as evidenced by the need for 12 saves by the goalkeeper.
• Attack: Based on the xG (expected goals) and actual goals ratio, the Croatian team underperforms on the offensive side, especially among attacking midfielders and forwards. For example, Andrej Kramarić scored 0.58 goals, with an xG of 0.7, indicating missed opportunities.
• Midfield Play: Luka Modrić and Marcelo Brozović executed many passes with high accuracy but were less effective in the attacking third.

Statistical Trends and Correlations:

• Goals and Expected Goals (xG): Croatia’s xG is higher (4.7) than Italy’s (1.7), but they scored fewer goals (2), indicating poor finishing.
• Passes and Possession: The Croatian team has high passing accuracy (87.2%) and many successful passes (1086), but most did not lead to goal-scoring opportunities.
• Defense: Croatia executed more defensive actions (31 tackles) but often failed to regain possession (31 interceptions).

Statistical Analysis of Italy

Team Performance:

• Defense and Goalkeeper Performance: Gianluigi Donnarumma showed stable performance, conceding only 2 goals in 2 matches with a 77.8% save rate. The Italian defense is solid, allowing few chances to opponents.
• Attack: The Italian team also underperforms in attack relative to xG (1.7 xG and 2 goals), but they capitalize on their chances better than Croatia.
• Midfield Play: Midfielders Nicolo Barella and Jorginho make numerous successful passes, facilitating attacks.

Statistical Trends and Correlations:

• Goals and Expected Goals (xG): Italy performs better than xG, indicating better finishing.
• Passes and Possession: Italy also has high passing accuracy (87.8%) and more successful long passes (425).
• Defense: Italy performs fewer tackles (24) but regains possession more effectively (31 interceptions).

Human Analysis Correlations

• Team Motivation: Human analysis suggests Croatia is highly motivated as they need a win to advance, while a draw may suffice for Italy.
• Player Form and Injuries: Both teams have key players in form, but the Italian defense appears more stable.

Recommendations for Bettors

Low-Risk Betting Tips:

1. Total Goals Under 3.5: Both defenses are stable, and the attackers’ finishing is not optimal. (Low risk)
2. Less than 10.5 Corners: Both teams statistically take few corners per match. (Low risk)
3. Croatia Over 1.5 Yellow Cards: Croatia plays hard in defense and commits many fouls. (Low risk)
4. Italy to Win, Draw No Bet: Both teams may focus on defense, and a draw is enough for Italy to advance. (Low risk)

Medium-Risk Betting Tips:

1. Draw: Both teams will focus on defense, and a draw suffices for Italy to advance. (Medium risk)

Summary of Analysis

The analysis suggests the most likely outcomes are a low-scoring match and a high number of yellow cards. The Italian defense seems more stable, and a draw could be sufficient for them to advance. Croatia’s attack has been ineffective, likely making it difficult for them to break through the Italian defense.