Fluminense – Alianza Lima

30/05/2024 2:30 Central European Time, Copa Libertadores

When analysing the match between Alianza Lima and Fluminense, we can make the following conclusions, taking into account both statistical data and analyses written by human experts:

Statistical Analysis

1. Team Form and Performance

• Fluminense have won three and drawn two of their five games so far, while Alianza Lima have not won a game, drawing four and losing one. This difference in performance gives Fluminense a significant advantage.

1. Expected Goals (xG)

• Fluminense’s expected goals (xG) are 2.5, while their opponents against them have 4.6 expected goals. This suggests that Fluminense’s defence could be more solid.
• Alianza Lima’s expected goals are 3.6, while their opponents have 2.2 expected goals. This indicates that Alianza Lima create more situations but convert fewer goals.

1. Key players’ performances

• Fluminense’s Marquinhos and Germán Cano were the most effective players, both scoring and assisting.
• The most dangerous player for Alianza Lima is Hernán Barcos, who has scored two goals so far in the series.

1. Defence Performance

• Fluminense goalkeeper Fábio has a save percentage of 78.6%, while Alianza Lima goalkeeper Ángelo Campos has a save percentage of 71.4%.

Expert Analysis

The expert analysis shows that Fluminense are motivated to finish top of the group, while Alianza Lima are almost impossible to progress. Fluminense’s need to win and home advantage are further positive factors for them.

Correlations and Trends

1. Motivation and Home Career Advantage

• Fluminense are playing at home and have a strong motivation to win the group. This is expected to boost their performance and chances of victory.

1. Player Absence and Injuries

• Alianza Lima have several key players injured or not at their best, while Fluminense are preparing for the match with a relatively full squad.

1. Defence Stability

• Fluminense’s defence seems to be more solid, as evidenced by the lower xGA (expected goals allowed) and the higher save percentage of their goalkeeper.

Tip Suggestions for Bettors (Low and Medium Risk)

1. Fluminense win (Low Risk)

• Fluminense are playing at home and are in stronger form. They have a high chance of winning, which is backed up by statistics and expert analysis.

1. Both teams score (Medium Risk!)

• Although Fluminense’s defence is strong, Alianza Lima can create situations. Fluminense is likely to score, but Alianza Lima could also score.

1. Hernán Barcos scores (Medium Risk!)

• Barcos is the most successful player of Alianza Lima. If Alianza Lima scores, there is a good chance that he will be the goal scorer.

1. Marquinhos or Germán Cano scores (Low Risk)

• Both players have been effective in previous matches and Fluminense’s attacking play is based on them.

Detailed Evaluation and Recommendations

• Fluminense win: based on performances and statistics so far, Fluminense is the more dominant team. Home field advantage and their motivation are in favour of a win.
• Both teams score goals: although Fluminense’s defence is strong, Alianza Lima should be able to create chances and score.
• Hernán Barcos scores: Barcos is Alianza Lima’s most dangerous striker and is likely to score if his team score.
• Marquinhos or Germán Cano scores: Both players are key to Fluminense’s attacking play and are likely to score.

Based on the above, a Fluminense win is the most likely outcome, while Alianza Lima could create scoring chances and possibly score. The statistical data and expert analysis are consistent, which increases the reliability of the proposed picks.