15/05/2024 dawn European time, 14/05/2024 evening local time
Copa Libertadores
In-depth analysis of River Plate vs Libertad Copa Libertadores match based on statistics and analysis by human experts:
River Plate Statistical Analysis
Player performance:
- Goalkeeper Franco Armani has an 80% save efficiency, which is an outstanding achievement.
- Miguel Borja has scored 1 goal and assisted 2 goals in 4 games, giving him a 3 goal contribution. His xG (expected goals) is 2.1, indicating that he has had more chances than he has converted into goals.
- Pablo Solari and Facundo Colidio were also strong scorers. Solari has 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games, while Colidio has 2 goals and 1 assist.
Team Statistics:
- River Plate score an average of 2 goals per game (xG: 7.0) and concede only 1 goal (xGA: 4.1), which shows a positive difference (+2.9).
- They have won three of their last four games and drawn one, keeping them unbeaten.
Expected Performance:
- The team’s attacking play is well reflected in the 2.97 xG (expected goals), which indicates that they are creating a lot of chances.
- They also have a strong defence, with only 1.36 xGA (expected goals allowed), which also shows good defending.
Libertad Statistical Analysis
Player performance:
- Roque Santa Cruz and Lorenzo Melgarejo both scored one goal each. Melgarejo has 2.2 xG, which shows good situational awareness.
- Goalkeeper Rodrigo Morínigo has a 72.2% save efficiency, which is also a good performance, but weaker than Armani’s.
Team Statistics:
- Libertad scores an average of 1.25 goals per game (xG: 4.5) and concedes the same (xGA: 7.1), which shows a negative difference (-2.6).
- They have won one of their last four games, drawing one and losing two.
Expected Performance:
- Libertad is less efficient on offense, their xG is only 1.72, which shows that they are developing fewer situations.
- Their defense is weak, 3.46 xGA, which indicates that they allow a lot of situations to their opponents.
Analysis by Human Experts
Human experts say:
- River Plate’s attacking play will be key, especially Borja and Colidio.
- Libertad’s defences are vulnerable, especially to rapid counterattacks.
- River Plate is strong and dominant at home, while Libertad struggles to execute effective attacks away from home.
Analysis and Tips
Number of goals (over/under):
- Based on the statistics, the number of goals is expected to be high as River Plate create a lot of situations and are efficient in finishing attacks. Over 2.5 goals (more than 2.5 goals) could be a low-risk bet.
Asian handicap:
- River Plate -1 Asian handicap (River Plate to win by at least 1 goal) could also be a low-risk bet, considering Libertad’s weak defence and River Plate’s strong attacking play.
Number of yellow cards:
- The human experts think the match will be tough, but statistically neither team will pick up many yellow cards. “Yellow cards under 5.5” could be a medium risk bet.
Winner/Traw tip:
- River Plate win is a low-risk bet, considering their current form and Libertad’s poor away performance.
Interesting facts
- River Plate are unbeaten at home, while Libertad have a poor away record.
- The last time the two teams met, River Plate won on the road.
Summary: Based on the analysis, River Plate’s win and over 2.5 goals seems to be the safest bet, taking into account both statistical data and human experts’ opinions.