SPAIN: La Liga – 20th Round
Analysis
Team Statistics
- Villarreal:
- Goals scored: Villarreal has scored 34 goals this season, which is one of the best offensive stats in La Liga, but they have conceded 31 goals, the third-worst defense.
- Home form: Only 3 wins from 9 home games, showing poor home form.
- Defensive issues: The team’s defensive weakness (31 goals conceded) clearly highlights a lack of stability.
- Mallorca:
- Away form: 5 wins from 9 away games, an outstanding performance.
- Goal difference: 24 goals scored and 22 conceded, showing that Mallorca has a more solid defense.
- Possession: An average of 45% possession, indicating a counter-attacking and efficient attacking style.
Player Statistics
- Villarreal:
- Ayoze Pérez has been performing exceptionally with 8 goals this season.
- Alex Baena is the best assist provider with 5 assists, though key players (e.g., Nicolas Pepe) might be missing.
- Mallorca:
- Vedat Muriqi has scored 7 goals and plays a key role in their attacks.
- Samu Costa, an excellent defensive midfielder, has stabilized the midfield with 69 ball recoveries.
Trends
- Villarreal plays in more high-scoring games, while Mallorca’s games tend to feature fewer goals.
- Villarreal’s home form is weaker, while Mallorca has shown improvement in their away results.
Low-Risk Bet
- Villarreal draw or win (1X) + Less than 3.5 goals:
- Explanation: Although Villarreal plays in high-scoring games, Mallorca’s more defensive approach could limit the number of goals.
Odds: 1.66 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet
- Villarreal to win:
- Explanation: They are playing at home, and Mallorca’s recent form has been mixed.
- Probability: 51.11%.
Odds: 1.77 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Facts and Surprises
- Villarreal, despite defensive problems, is 5th, showing excellent attacking efficiency.
- Mallorca’s away form is the second-best in the league, presenting a serious challenge to the home team.
- The previous match between the two teams in the 2024-25 season ended 1-1, suggesting another tight match ahead.