04/05/2024
When analysing the match between Burnley and Newcastle United, it is necessary to take into account the current form, squad and statistics of both teams. I will give my tips based on the analysis below with an assessment of the risks.
Burnley’s statistics and form:
Burnley have struggled considerably this season, as evidenced by just 5 wins and 21 defeats, and 70 goals conceded. They have only managed to go 2 games without conceding a goal, which is a cause for concern in terms of their defensive performance. However, they have shown improving form recently, as evidenced by the draw against Manchester United. Their recent improved home performance (7 points in the last round) suggests they could be stronger at Turf Moor.
Newcastle’s statistics and form:
Newcastle are having a much more productive season, with 16 wins and 74 goals scored. Their outstanding attacking play is shown by a goal per game ratio of 2.18 and the outstanding form of striker Isak, who has now scored 23 goals in all competitions. However, their away record is weaker, with just 14 points and they have lost 8 of their last 11 away games.
Risk assessment and tips:
- Number of goals (over/under): given that Burnley have averaged more than 2 goals per game and Newcastle’s strong attacking line has been able to score more than 2 goals per game, a ‘1.5 goals over’ bet may seem low risk. Risk: low.
- Asian handicap: In case of a Newcastle win, the Asian handicap could be a reasonable choice, given the team’s attacking strength and Burnley’s weak defence. A Newcastle -1.5 handicap could be a higher risk, given Burnley’s improving form, so a Newcastle -0.5 handicap might be a better choice. Risk: medium at -1.5 and low at -0.5 handicap.
- Win or Draw: Given that Newcastle are the stronger team on paper, but given Burnley’s improving form and home advantage, the risk of a “Newcastle win or draw” is low. Risk: low.
Summary:
Statistics and human analysis suggest Newcastle are favourites, but Burnley’s improving form and Newcastle’s poor away record require some caution when betting. Recommended picks include over 1.5 goals, Newcastle win or draw, and Asian handicap with Newcastle -0.5 goal advantage. These are low to medium risk picks that take into account the current form and statistics of both teams.