GERMANY: German Cup – Quarterfinals
(This analysis is done using the usual system, the NextGen analyses will arrive after the system transition)
📊 Statistical Analysis
1. Team Stats and Trends
VfB Stuttgart
- The team has shown strong attacking performance in the cup, scoring 10 goals in 3 matches and conceding only 1.
- They are undefeated at home in the cup, but have lost 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.
- Their ball possession rate is outstanding, exceeding 69% in all DFB-Pokal matches.
- Defense is hit by injuries: Dan-Axel Zagadou and Ameen Al Dakhil are unavailable.
Augsburg
- The team has had mixed form: only one loss in their last 6 away matches.
- Their cup performance is stable: unbeaten in all three matches so far.
- They have conceded only two goals in their last four matches, indicating solid defense.
- They are weaker in scoring, missing players like Mergim Berisha from attack.
2. Player Stats and Outstanding Performances
VfB Stuttgart
- Nick Woltemade is in exceptional form, scoring 3 goals in 3 matches.
- Chris Führich also effective in attack, with 1 goal in 3 matches.
- Atakan Karazor is a stable defensive midfielder, leading in ball recoveries.
- Deniz Undav and Chris Führich can play key roles in attack.
Augsburg
- Phillip Tietz is one of the team’s most dangerous forwards, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the cup.
- Jeffrey Gouweleeuw excels in defense, with 8 successful tackles and 7 ball recoveries.
- Chrislain Matsima and Noahkai Banks could be crucial in defense.
✅ Medium-Risk Tips
1️⃣ Augsburg Over 0.5 Goal
- Probability: 69.42%
- Rationale: Augsburg plays steadily away, and Stuttgart’s defensive injuries might make it easier for them.
Odds: 1.48 – Kelly: 1%
2️⃣ Both Teams to Score – YES
- Probability: 60%
- Rationale: Both teams tend to concede, and in 60% of recent Stuttgart vs Augsburg matches, both teams have scored.
Odds: 1.69 – Kelly: 1%
3️⃣ Over 2.5 Goals in the Match
- Probability: 62.6%
- Rationale: Stuttgart is strong in attack, averaging 3.3 goals per match in their cup games.
Odds: 1.56 – Kelly: 1%
🔎 Interesting and Surprising Observations
- Stuttgart’s Defense is Leaky: Conceded 8 goals in their last 3 matches across all competitions, which could be an issue.
- Augsburg is Solid Away: Lost just one of their last 6 away games.
- Woltemade a Key Player: Outstanding in Stuttgart’s attack, one of the top performers in the cup matches.
- Statistical Model Predicts Stuttgart Win (57.2% Chance).
📌 Summary
- Stuttgart is the favorite but Augsburg’s away performance shouldn’t be underestimated.
- From a betting perspective, the number of goals and both teams to score are probably the safest bets.
- Nick Woltemade is in great form, while Augsburg’s defense has stabilized recently.
- The match is expected to be close, but Stuttgart has a better chance of advancing.