GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 21
Team and Player Statistical Analysis
RB Leipzig Team Statistics:
- Form: Winless in their last 4 Bundesliga matches (3 draws, 1 loss).
- Home Ground: Strong performance at home with 10 wins, 5 draws, and only 1 loss in their last 16 home Bundesliga games.
- Attacking Performance: Scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, but failed to score in the last two (0-0 against Union Berlin, 0-1 loss to Sturm Graz).
- Weak Spot: Tend to drop points against weaker teams (draws with St. Pauli, Bochum, Union Berlin, loss to Hoffenheim).
Key Players:
- Loïs Openda: 19 matches, 6 goals, 5 assists.
- Benjamin Šeško: 19 matches, 8 goals.
- Willi Orban: As a defender, scored 5 goals, significantly contributing to the offense as well.
St. Pauli Team Statistics:
- Form: 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 games. In good form, especially in defense.
- Defense: One of the best defenses in the league, conceding only 22 goals.
- Attacking Weakness: Third worst attack in the league, with just 18 goals scored.
Key Players:
- Jackson Irvine: 5 assists, plays a key role as a midfielder.
- Eric Smith: Stable defensive performance, strong in aerial duels.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Under 3.5 Goals in the Match
- Explanation: St. Pauli plays tight matches with strong defense, and based on Leipzig’s current form, a goal fest is not expected.
- Probability: 64.68%
Odds: 1.46 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- RB Leipzig Win
- Explanation: Given Leipzig’s home strength and St. Pauli’s attacking weakness, a close win is likely.
- Probability: 44.32%
Odds: 1.61 – Kelly: 1%
- More than 3.5 Yellow Cards
- Explanation: Both teams rely on strong defenses, which typically leads to more fouls. Players like Loïs Openda and Jackson Irvine are prone to committing fouls based on statistics.
Odds: 1.69 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Observations:
- Leipzig’s Defensive Issues: Conceded 14 goals in the last 6 matches, surprising for a team competing for a Champions League spot.
- St. Pauli’s Defensive Strength: Second-best defense in the league, even though they struggle in attack.
- Leipzig’s Home Dominance: Lost only one of their 16 home games, giving them a significant advantage.
Final Conclusion
Based on RB Leipzig’s home strength and St. Pauli’s defensive strategy, a tight, low-scoring match is expected. The safest bets are on the total number of goals and both teams to score. The outcome of the match could be uncertain due to Leipzig’s inconsistent form, so it’s worth considering alternative betting markets.