Portugal – Slovenia

Detailed Analysis and Betting Tips for the Portugal-Slovenia UEFA European Championship Round of 16 Match

Statistical Analysis

Based on the statistical data and expert analysis, several important trends and correlations can be identified before the match between Portugal and Slovenia.

Portugal Statistical Analysis:

• Goals and Shots: Portugal scored 5 goals in their three matches, averaging 1.67 goals per match, while their expected goals (xG) value is 5.7. This indicates that the team is capitalizing on their opportunities and attacking effectively.
• Defensive Performance: Diogo Costa conceded 3 goals in three matches, with a GA90 (goals against per match) of 1.00 and a save percentage of 71.4%. The xGA (expected goals against) value is 2.8, indicating a stable defense.
• Key Players: Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva both scored 1 goal each, and their xG and xAG values highlight their significant roles in the attacks. Cristiano Ronaldo takes many shots (4.41 shots/90), but he has not scored yet.

Slovenia Statistical Analysis:

• Goals and Shots: Slovenia scored 2 goals in their three matches, which is lower than expected. Their xG (expected goals) value is 4.1, suggesting they are not capitalizing on their chances effectively.
• Defensive Performance: The Slovenian defense conceded 4 goals, resulting in a GA90 of 1.33. Their xGA value is 5.7, indicating they allow many dangerous situations to their opponents.

Expert Analysis

Experts emphasize that Portugal is in strong form, with key players like Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva performing well. The Slovenian team struggles in defense and has difficulty capitalizing on attacking opportunities.

Risk Analysis and Betting Tips

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Portugal win – Portugal is in strong form and statistically more likely to win. (Low risk)
2. Cristiano Ronaldo more than 1.5 shots on target – Ronaldo takes many shots, and statistically, this is likely. (Low risk)
3. Portugal more than 1.5 goals – Portugal’s attack is effective and can score multiple goals. (Low risk)

Medium-Risk Tips:

1. Bruno Fernandes to score or assist – Fernandes is a creative player who regularly contributes to goals. (Medium risk)

Summary

Based on statistical data and expert analyses, Portugal is more likely to win, with strong attacking and defensive performances. Slovenia struggles with efficiency at both ends of the pitch, tipping the match in favor of Portugal. The most reliable betting options include a Portugal win, Ronaldo’s shots on target, and Portugal scoring more than 1.5 goals, while corners and Fernandes’ performance are medium-risk but likely bets.