EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 1, September 18, 2024
Form and Performance
- Manchester City has been incredibly dominant this season. Erling Haaland’s nine goals in the Premier League are outstanding, and his xG (expected goals) of 4.8 also indicates that he is very dangerous in front of goal. Moreover, City scores 2.75 goals per game while allowing only 0.5, which suggests massive offensive and defensive capabilities.
- Internazionale has also had a strong start in Serie A, with Marcus Thuram in excellent form, having scored 4 goals with an average of 3.42 shots per game. Inter averages 2 goals while conceding only 0.75, indicating a solid defense.
Defensive Metrics
- City: Ederson’s save percentage of 72.7% and the 0.75 goals conceded per game also suggest that it will be hard to break through City’s defense. Led by Ruben Dias and Joško Gvardiol, their defense is strong while capable of launching rapid counter-attacks.
- Inter: Yann Sommer is an experienced goalkeeper with a 78.6% save rate. While they have only conceded 3 goals so far, their xGA (expected goals against) is higher, indicating they have sometimes been lucky in defensive situations.
Playing Style and Attacking Power
- City dominates possession and chance creation. They play with an average pass accuracy of 89.5% and have an xG+xA (expected goals and assists) of 4.19. Their attacks are continuous and precise, especially led by Haaland, De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva.
- Inter: The Italian team relies on quick counter-attacks, especially through Thuram, who has an xG of 2.2 so far this season. They also play with high pass accuracy (86.6%), but create fewer goal-scoring chances compared to City.
Impact of Injuries and Absences
- City: Kevin De Bruyne may return to the starting lineup, strengthening their attacking midfield play. Bernardo Silva is also a key player, but it will be important to monitor if everyone can perform at full strength.
- Inter: Acerbi and Bastoni lead the defense, and Thuram is the engine of their attacks, but it remains a key question as to how stable they can stay under pressure from City’s dynamic offense.
Expert Opinions and Motivation
Experts emphasize that both teams are highly motivated, especially for Inter, as this is a prestige match. However, statistically, City’s dominance and home-field advantage outweigh Inter’s chances.
Low and Medium-Risk Betting Tips:
Low-Risk Tips:
- Manchester City wins (Probability: 70%) – City dominates at home, and with their current form, especially Haaland, victory seems almost assured.
Odds: 1.55 – Safe Kelly: 5%
Medium-Risk Tips:
2. Over 3.5 Cards (Probability: 60%) – The match could be tense, and based on statistics, both teams are prone to fouls in heated moments.