Internazionale – Fiorentina

ITALY: Serie A – Round 24

1. Team and Player Statistics Analysis

Internazionale

• Team Statistics:
• Average Possession: Around 57%, indicating strong dominance in matches.
• Expected Goals (xG): Averaging 1.8 xG per match, showing that they regularly create chances.
• Defense: Opponents’ expected goals against (xGA) is low, around 1.1, indicating strong defense.
• Player Statistics:
• Marcus Thuram: 13 goals, 4 assists, outstanding attacking performance with a 1.0 xG+/- rating.
• Lautaro Martínez: 9 goals, 3 assists, a reliable striker who is dangerous at critical moments of the matches.
• Yann Sommer (goalkeeper): 23 matches, 0 goals, but an 18.8 xGA rating, showing he limits opponents’ attacking effectiveness.

Fiorentina

• Team Statistics:
• Average Possession: Around 60%, suggesting Fiorentina also likes to control the game.
• Expected Goals (xG): 1.5 xG per match, but recently they’ve become more efficient at finishing.
• Defense: Opponents’ xGA is 1.3, which suggests slightly weaker defense.
• Player Statistics:
• Moise Kean: 15 goals, 2 assists, currently ahead of Thuram on the Capocannoniere list.
• Luca Ranieri: As a defender, 1 goal and 2 assists, but also stable defensively (44.2% aerial duel success).
• David de Gea: Played 20 matches, an experienced goalkeeper with several outstanding saves.

2. Expert Analysis Summary

Internazionale suffered a surprising defeat in their last match in Florence (3-0), only their second loss this season. Fiorentina’s victory marks their second consecutive triumph against a big team (having previously beaten Lazio), and they are currently in excellent form.

However, Internazionale is very strong at home, having lost only two of their last 30 home Serie A matches. According to the analysis, Inter has a 55.77% probability of winning, while Fiorentina’s chance of victory is 20.87%.

3. Betting Tips (Risk Categories)

Low-Risk Tips

1. Internazionale Win

• Rationale: Inter is strong at home and rarely loses there. They will be motivated to bounce back after their recent defeat.
• Probability: 55.77%

Odds: 1.50 – Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tips

2. Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

• Rationale: Inter’s attack is strong, but Fiorentina is also in form, particularly with Moise Kean’s standout performance.
• Probability: 51.9%

Odds: 1.83 – Kelly: 1%

3. Over 3.5 Yellow Cards

• Rationale: The previous match was tense, and the rivalry between the two teams could increase aggression.
• Probability: ~60%

Odds: 1.73 – Kelly: 1%

4. Surprising Facts and Trivia

• Fiorentina’s Historic Opportunity: Fiorentina could win two consecutive matches against Internazionale for the first time since 2016.
• The Race between Marcus Thuram and Moise Kean: Both strikers are close to their personal goal records, providing extra motivation.
• Internazionale’s Home Dominance: Inter has lost only two of their last 30 home Serie A games.