Hungary – Netherlands

EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – League A – Round 3 – October 11, 2024

The following analysis is based on statistical data and information provided by human experts, taking into account the statistics of both teams, player form, and potential starting line-ups. The purpose of the analysis is to identify betting opportunities with low or medium risk.

1. Match Outcome and Statistics

Hungary’s Performance:

• The Hungarian national team has not scored in their first two matches, suffering a 5-0 defeat against Germany, followed by a 0-0 draw against Bosnia-Herzegovina. Their attacking play is weak, unable to create dangerous situations, with only 6 shots on target out of 22 attempts.
• Dominik Szoboszlai is a key figure in the midfield but has not yet delivered an outstanding performance statistically (2 matches, 4 shots, all of which missed the target).
• The Hungarian defense is also struggling. They conceded 5 goals against Germany, and although the draw against Bosnia was encouraging, the statistics indicate that there is still significant pressure on their defense.

Netherlands’ Performance:

• The Netherlands secured a 5-2 victory against Bosnia and played to a 2-2 draw against Germany. They showed exceptional attacking potential, particularly through Tijjani Reijnders (2 goals and 1 assist), Xavi Simons, and Cody Gakpo.
• The defense is stable under the leadership of Virgil van Dijk and Denzel Dumfries. Although they conceded 4 goals in two matches, Hungary’s attacking line is unlikely to exploit these defensive weaknesses.
• Based on the opponents’ statistical performance, the Netherlands can dominate their matches, having held 75% possession against Bosnia and demonstrating solid play against Germany as well.

Experts emphasize that the Netherlands is favored to win and will likely dominate the match with confidence. Hungary’s weak attacking play makes it difficult for them to put serious pressure on the Dutch defense. Furthermore, the Dutch are highly motivated, as their goal is to finish at the top of the group and secure advancement.

Low-Risk Tip:

1. Netherlands to win (50.48%)
   • Based on statistical and form indicators, the Netherlands is clearly the favorite for this match. Their attacking line is more efficient, while Hungary has performed poorly in recent games.
   • Probability: 50.48%
   • Risk: Low

Odds: 1.67 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tips:

1. Both Teams to Score (54.7%)
   • Although Hungary has not scored in their first two matches, playing at home usually benefits them, and there is a chance they will find the net against a weaker Dutch defense.
   • Probability: 54.7%
   • Risk: Medium

Odds: 1.73 – Safe Kelly: 2%

2. Total Corners Over 8.5
   • Both teams statistically rely on attacks from the flanks, which often leads to a higher number of corners. Hungary’s defense will be under pressure, resulting in more corner situations.
   • Probability: No exact data available
   • Risk: Medium

Odds: 1.70 – Safe Kelly: 2%

3. Total Yellow Cards Over 3.5
   • Hungarian defenders, especially Willi Orban and Botka, tend to play aggressively, while Dutch attackers are quick and can provoke fouls. This increases the likelihood of more yellow cards.
   • Probability: No exact data available
   • Risk: Medium

Odds: 1.72 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Conclusion:

The safest bets for the match are a Dutch victory and under 3.5 goals, as Hungary’s current form makes it difficult to see them posing a serious threat to the Dutch defense. Medium-risk bets could also be reasonable, particularly in terms of corners and yellow cards, where more activity is expected based on statistics and the expected style of play.