Gremio – Estudiantes

08/06/2024, Copa Libertadores

In analysing today’s Gremio vs Estudiantes match, I have taken into account a range of statistical data and expert analysis to gain an in-depth understanding of the teams’ performances, strengths and weaknesses.

Gremio Statistical Analysis

Gremio’s side have recorded three wins and two defeats in five matches in the Copa Libertadores. The team has so far scored six goals and conceded four, a positive goal difference. According to the statistics, Gremio’s xG (expected number of goals) is 7.2, while the xGA (expected number of goals scored) is 4.7, indicating that the team is capable of creating situations and is defensively solid.

Key players

• Everton: With an average of 3.4 goals scored per game and 0.8 xG. 37.5% of his shots hit the target, indicating he is a dangerous striker.
• Diego Costa: with an average of 2.9 goals per game, he has one goal and 1.1 xG. He is also an important player in the attack.
• Yeferson Soteldo: With an average of 3.3 goals per game and 1.0 xAG (expected number of assists). He is outstanding in the attacking third, where he creates the most situations.

Statistical Analysis of Estudiantes

Estudiantes have won one, drawn one and lost three of their five matches, scoring six goals and conceding eight. Their xG is 6.3, while their xGA is 3.8, suggesting that they create more chances than they get, but their defence is still vulnerable.

Key players

• Javier Marcelo Correa: with an average of 4.3 goals per game, he has scored three goals and has 2.6 xG. He is the team’s main goalscorer.
• Edwin Cetré: With an average of 3.7 goals and two assists per game, he has a xG of 0.4 and a xAG of 0.9. He is also a key player in the attack.
• Tiago Palacios: With an average of 3.6 assists per game, he has two assists, a xG of 0.6 and a xAG of 1.1.

Expert Analysis

Experts pointed out that Gremio’s motivation is high as he wants to finish at the top of the group. For Estudiantes, on the other hand, a win is essential to progress, which raises the stakes and intensity of the match. In terms of injuries, Gremio are better off, while Estudiantes are without several key players.

Tip Analysis

1. Gremio win or draw (low risk): based on Gremio’s home record and motivation, they are likely to win or draw the match. They are statistically stronger and have better offensive and defensive statistics.
2. Both teams score goals : YES (medium risk): Both teams have strong attackers and tend to score goals and score goals. Both Gremio and Estudiantes have scored more goals in previous matches, which makes it likely that both teams will score.
3. Gremio to score more than 1.5 goals (medium risk): Given the past performances of the two teams and the statistical data, it is likely that at least two goals will be scored in the match. Estudiantes’ defence is vulnerable, while Gremio’s attack is effective.

Summary

The match between Gremio and Estudiantes promises to be an exciting one, with Gremio the favourite to win. Both teams have a strong attacking unit, so a goal difference is likely. With Gremio’s more solid defence and better form, they are expected to dominate the match. Based on low to medium risk picks, the safest bet is a Gremio win and at least two goals in the match.