Gibraltar – Scotland

03/06/2024, friendly match

Overview

The aim of the friendly match is for the teams to prepare and test their form before the upcoming competitions. Scotland are aiming to break their long unbeaten run, while for Gibraltar any positive result would be a huge success.

Statistical Analysis

Gibraltar statistics:

• Gibraltar have lost all eight of their matches in UEFA Euro 2024 qualification, with a 0-41 goal difference.
• The team allowed 41 goals conceded, which is 5.12 goals per game.
• The strikers failed to score and only 9 shots were on target, 2 of which were on target.
• Their defense is also weak, the team allowed 92 shots, of which 57.6% were saved.

Statistics for Scotland:

• Scotland have been the stronger performers in qualifying but have failed to win in their last seven matches.
• Scotland have scored 19 goals in their last seven games, which is 2.71 goals per game.
• Scotland’s forwards, especially Scott McTominay and John McGinn, were outstanding. McTominay has scored 7 goals in 9.3 games, while McGinn has 3 goals and 2 assists in 9.5 games.
• Angus Gunn, the Scottish goalkeeper, has a save percentage of 85.7% in 8 games.

Expert Analysis

Experts believe Scotland will be motivated to improve their poor friendly form and regain confidence ahead of the European Championship. Gibraltar’s poor performance and the fact that they have not scored in their last 12 matches makes it clear that Scotland are strong favourites to win.

Players and Injuries

• Gibraltar: Key players include 42-year-old Lee Casciaro and midfielder Liam Walker. Both are experienced players but the overall team quality is lower, especially in attack and defence.
• Scotland: they have several injured players including Lyndon Dykes, Lewis Ferguson, Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson. However, Scotland have a wider squad and should be able to fill in for these absentees.

My tips and their evaluation

1. Scotland’s win (low risk)

• Verdict: Scotland are a much stronger team and even with their injuries they will be dominant against Gibraltar, who have lost all their games and have not scored a goal.
• Rationale: Gibraltar’s attack is weak and their defences are easily penetrated. Scotland will be motivated to get back to winning ways.

1. Scotland scores more than 1.5 goals (low risk)

• Rating: Scotland’s strikers, like McTominay and McGinn, are capable of scoring more. Gibraltar’s defence is very weak, as evidenced by the 41 goals conceded.
• Rationale: Based on the statistics of the Scottish attackers and the defensive weaknesses of Gibraltar, it is likely that Scotland will score more goals.

1. Gibraltar not to score (low risk)

• Verdict: Gibraltar’s attack has been completely ineffective of late, and the fact that they have not scored in their last 12 matches is a strong indicator.
• Rationale: Scotland’s defence, although not the strongest, is still enough to prevent Gibraltar from scoring, especially in a friendly match.

Concluding thoughts

Statistical and expert analysis clearly shows that Scotland is the favourite to win. Based on Gibraltar’s poor performance and Scotland’s strong attacking performance, the above-mentioned picks can be considered low-risk. Taking all factors into account, Scotland’s dominance is expected in this match, even if it is a friendly match where the stakes are lower.