ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 22
Comprehensive Analysis
Team Statistics
- Brentford:
- Home Performance: Strong attacking play (29 home goals), but weak defense (27 goals conceded). Additionally, they have only won one out of their last eight matches across all competitions.
- Possession: Typically low, especially against stronger opponents (e.g., Liverpool: 38% in the previous encounter).
- Key Players: Bryan Mbeumo (13 goals), and Christian Nørgaard, who plays a crucial role in midfield.
- Liverpool:
- Away Performance: Despite a slow start in 2025, they are on a 16-match unbeaten run.
- Defensive Solidity: One of the best defenses, led by Virgil van Dijk (only 0.5 xGA against Brentford).
- Key Players: Mohamed Salah (18 goals, 13 assists), and Ryan Gravenberch, who has exceptional positioning ability.
Player Statistics
- Brentford:
- Bryan Mbeumo’s attacking play stands out with 13 goals, exceeding his xG (7.5).
- Mikkel Damsgaard: Creative midfielder with 6 assists.
- Liverpool:
- Mohamed Salah: Excellent performance in xG (18.1) and assists (13).
- Trent Alexander-Arnold: Key in setting up attacks and organizing the defense.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both Teams to Score:
- Rationale: Brentford’s strong attacking ability at home combined with their weak defense, as well as Liverpool’s attacking potential, justifies this tip.
- Probability: 63.16%.
Odds: 1.49 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Liverpool Win:
- Rationale: Liverpool has a 66.57% chance of winning, taking into account their current form and the differences between the two teams.
- Probability: 66.57%.
Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Facts
- Liverpool has not failed to score against Brentford since 1936, demonstrating the long-term reliability of their attack.
- Brentford has not kept a clean sheet at home this season, which stands out.
- Mohamed Salah’s current xG exceeds his average by 0.44 per match, indicating exceptional form.