Brasileiro, August 18, 2024
Detailed Analysis
Based on the statistics of the match between Atlético Goianiense and Internacional, I provide a detailed analysis to help understand the likely outcome of the match, with a particular focus on betting opportunities.
Atlético Goianiense Statistical Analysis
Atlético Goianiense has faced significant struggles this season. The team has managed only 2 wins out of 22 matches, suffering 14 losses, keeping them in 18th place on the table. They have scored 17 goals while conceding 36, clearly indicating their problems in both attack and defense. The team averages 0.77 goals per game while conceding 1.64 goals per game.
According to the xG (expected goals) statistics, Atlético Goianiense was expected to score 23.4 goals, but they have only managed 17, meaning they are not capitalizing on their chances. They are also underperforming in defense, with opponents expected to score 28.3 goals against them, but they have conceded 36. The team is underperforming in both attack and defense.
Internacional Statistical Analysis
Internacional is in somewhat better form, though not a much stronger team. Wesley, one of the players, has scored 5 goals with an xG of 3.2, indicating that he is effectively capitalizing on his chances. Internacional is also more stable in defense than Atlético Goianiense, having conceded fewer goals and performing better according to their xGA (expected goals against).
Internacional’s current form is more stable than Atlético Goianiense’s, having won more matches and being less prone to defeat. Additionally, the team has several players capable of scoring, increasing their attacking potential.
Betting Suggestions and Analysis
Low-Risk Bet:
1. Internacional Win (Draw No Bet) – Probability: 70%, 1.66x, Half Kelly: 12.27%
Given Atlético Goianiense’s poor form and low scoring ability, it is unlikely they will defeat Internacional. Internacional’s defense is more stable, and while they are not dominant in attack, they are likely to secure at least a point.
Medium-Risk Bet:
2. Under 2.5 Goals in the Match – Probability: 60%, 1.57x, Kelly: 3%
Both teams struggle with scoring goals, and statistics indicate that neither is very productive in attack. Atlético Goianiense is particularly weak on the attacking side, and Internacional is not showing outstanding scoring form. A close match with few goals is expected.
3. Both Teams Not to Score – Probability: 65%, 1.78x, Half Kelly: 10.05%
Given Atlético Goianiense’s low scoring ability and Internacional’s stable defense, it is unlikely that both teams will score.
Key Insights
- Atlético Goianiense has lost four of their last 5 matches, while Internacional has drawn three of their last 5 matches, indicating that Internacional tends to draw when playing away.
- Atlético Goianiense has only won 2 matches at home, further reducing their chances of winning.
Overall, based on the analysis, Internacional is more likely to win the match, but the number of goals will probably be low. In terms of betting, it is advisable to choose options that favor Internacional, considering the low number of goals and Atlético Goianiense’s attacking struggles.