ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchday 12
1. Team Statistics Analysis
Leicester City:
- Form Trends:
- Relatively good performance at home: they have scored in every home match.
- 15th place in the Premier League; they’ve collected 10 points out of 33.
- Weak defense: consistently high xGA (expected goals against), e.g., 2.5 against Crystal Palace.
- Key Indicators:
- Vulnerability in the attack due to injuries: Abdul Fatawu is out with an ACL injury, and Jamie Vardy and others are also injured.
- Poor possession stats (often below 40% on average in several matches).
Chelsea:
- Form Trends:
- 3rd place in the Premier League; highest away goals scored (12 goals).
- Stable away attacking play but mixed form: just one win in their last four league matches.
- Key Indicators:
- Effective defense: consistently low xGA (expected goals against).
- Key players like Cole Palmer (7 goals, 5 assists) excel in attack.
- Minimal injuries: Reece James is unavailable, but other key players like Moisés Caicedo are fit.
2. Player Statistics
Leicester City Players:
- Wout Faes: A solid defender, but his Aerial Duels Won rate is only 58%.
- Wilfred Ndidi: Outstanding midfielder with 4 assists and 52 recoveries.
- James Justin: Supports well from defense, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist.
Chelsea Players:
- Cole Palmer: Dynamic attacker with a 0.37 xG+/- indicator.
- Nicolas Jackson: Effective striker with 6 goals and 3 assists.
- Moisés Caicedo: Balanced midfield performance with a 64.7% aerial duel success rate.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tip:
- Chelsea to score first (77% probability):
- Leicester’s defense is weak, especially in the first half.
- Chelsea’s attackers are quick to break through defenses.
- Reason for recommendation: Leicester starts slow; Chelsea has a strong attacking form.
- Probability: 76%.
Odds: 1.41 – Kelly: 5%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Over 2.5 goals (63% probability):
- Chelsea’s away games see many goals.
- Leicester is also capable of scoring at home.
- Reason for recommendation: High scoring tendencies for both teams.
- Probability: 63%.
Odds: 1.50 – Kelly: 2%
Interesting Observations
- Leicester’s issues in attack: Injuries significantly reduce their offensive strength.
- Chelsea’s attacking dominance away from home: They are the best away team in the league with 12 goals.
- Individual performances: Cole Palmer’s outstanding form (7 goals, 5 assists) could be decisive.