ITALY: Serie B – Round 5, September 13, 2024
Team Statistics
At the start of the 2024-2025 season, both teams have shown fluctuating performances. Cesena has won two and lost two of their first four matches, while Modena has recorded one win, one draw, and two losses. The statistics reveal that both teams have rather conservative attacks, averaging fewer than 2 goals per match.
Cesena’s xG (expected goals) is around 1.6, indicating a stable attacking potential, but nothing exceptional. Modena’s xG is 1.37, slightly lower but still reflecting a moderate attacking force. Defensively, both teams are similar, with Cesena conceding an average of 1.25 goals per game, while Modena concedes 1.00. However, Modena’s goalkeeper, Riccardo Gagno, lags slightly behind Cesena’s goalkeeper in terms of efficiency, with a PSxG (post-shot expected goals) of -1.4, meaning he has conceded more goals than expected based on statistics.
Player Performance and Expected Lineups
Player analysis shows that both teams’ key players are in good form. For Cesena, Cristian Shpendi is particularly noteworthy, having scored two goals this season with an xG of 1.9, indicating he could be a threat in attacks. On Modena’s side, Antonio Palumbo also plays a crucial role, with 1 goal and an xG of 1.3.
Both teams are expected to play with a 3-5-2 formation, suggesting strong midfield presence and likely a focus on quick transitions between defense and attack.
Low-Risk Bet Suggestion:
- Cesena – Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0)
- Cesena tends to perform better at home, while Modena’s away form is inconsistent, making a home win likely.
Odds: 1.5 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Medium-Risk Bet Suggestion:
- Under 2.5 goals in the match – Both teams have stable defenses, and based on their results so far, a high-scoring match seems unlikely (probability: 65%).
Odds: 1.6 – Safe Kelly: 2%